001Capital flows: what we are really tracking
002The price of money
003Liquidity versus solvency
004Domestic and foreign capital
005Gross and net flows
006Flow versus stock
007Relative return
008Participant horizons
009Market reflexivity
010Mapping the financial system
011Central banks: price and availability of reserves
012QE: asset purchases and portfolio rebalancing
013QT: withdrawal of balance-sheet support
014Repo and reverse repo
015Dollar shortage risk
016Bank balance-sheet capacity
017Treasury cash balances and fiscal flows
018Liquidity is not one curve
019Forward guidance and expectations
020The policy reaction function
021The yield curve as an expectations map
022Real yields
023Term premium
024Sovereign bond auctions
025Bond spreads
026Credit spreads
027Duration and convexity
028Mortgage convexity
029Swaps and OIS
030Who owns the bonds
031Currency as the relative price of capital
032Interest-rate differential
033Carry trade
034Cross-currency basis
035Reserve currency
036Current account and capital account
037Foreign-exchange reserves
038Central-bank intervention
039Hedging foreign assets
040Currency mismatch in liabilities
041Equities as discounted future cash flows
042Growth versus value
043The index is not the economy
044ETF and passive flows
045Pension funds and rebalancing
046Volatility as a budgeting variable
047Share buybacks
048Options and dealer hedging
049IPOs, issuance and secondary supply
050Sector flows as macro signals
051Gold as a monetary asset
052Central banks and gold
053Oil as a flow of the physical economy
054Copper and the industrial cycle
055Commodity currencies
056The futures curve
057Commodity index flows
058Inventories and working capital
059Geopolitics versus financial flow
060Commodities as inflation information
061Volatility as the price of uncertainty
062Margins and forced selling
063Stop-losses and systematic strategies
064Liquidity vacuum
065Dealer gamma
066VIX and volatility term structure
067Correlation shock
068Risk parity
069CTAs and trend strategies
070Capitulation flow
071Commercial banks
072Insurers
073Pension funds
074Hedge funds
075Asset managers
076Sovereign wealth funds
077Reserve managers
078Corporate treasury
079Households and retail
080Forced buyers and forced sellers
081Growth without inflation
082Inflationary boom
083Disinflationary slowdown
084Stagflation
085Deflationary shock
086Liquidity expansion
087Liquidity contraction
088Risk-on regime
089Risk-off regime
090Regime transition
091The Volcker regime, 1979–1982
092The Plaza Accord, 1985
093Japan's bubble and bust
094ERM and sterling, 1992
095The bond massacre of 1994
096The Asian financial crisis, 1997
097Russia and LTCM, 1998
098The dot-com unwind, 2000–2002
099The global financial crisis, 2008
100The European sovereign debt crisis, 2010–2012
101The taper tantrum, 2013
102SNB and the franc, 2015
103China devaluation scare, 2015
104Volmageddon, 2018
105Repo stress, 2019
106The COVID dollar squeeze, 2020
107Negative oil prices, 2020
108Meme stocks, 2021
109The bond shock of 2022
110The U.K. LDI crisis, 2022
111SVB, 2023
112Seven questions before every macro trade
113Flow Matrix
114Flow momentum
115Confirmation and invalidation
116Time layers
117Flow calendar
118When fundamentals and flows conflict
119Top-down and bottom-up confirmation
120Scenario thinking
121Edge is not certainty
122Intermarket lead-lag
123Correlation versus causality
124Network contagion
125Collateral as the currency of finance
126Shadow banking
127Market depth
128Financial conditions
129Reflexive policy
130When the dollar and yields rise together
131When the dollar and yields diverge
132Conclusion: follow the forces beneath price
